Pierre-Olivier Beffy

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  • ancien élève de l'Ecole polytechnique et de l'Ensae,
  • 2001, au sein de la division croissance et politiques macroéconomiques de l'Insee en tant que chargé d'études économiques.
  • 2004, économiste à la division de l'analyse macroéconomique de l'OCDE
  • 2007, chef de la division synthèse conjoncturelle de l'Insee
  • 2008, publication chez DE Boeck : Initiation à l'économie
  • chef économiste chez Exane BNP Paribas

Pierre-Olivier Beffy est chef-économiste d’Exane BNP Paribas ; administrateur INSEE, X-ENSAE (2001). Après une carrière de macro-économiste qui l’a conduit de l’INSEE à l’OCDE avant de prendre la tête de la synthèse conjoncturelle à l’INSEE en 2007, il a rejoint le groupe Exane BNP Paribas en 2008.

Créé en 1990, le Groupe Exane intervient sur trois métiers :

  • L'intermédiation actions : Sous la marque Exane BNP Paribas, le Groupe Exane propose aux institutionnels des services incluant la recherche, la vente et l'exécution sur les actions européennes.
  • Les dérivés : Fort d'un leadership historique sur l'intermédiation en obligations convertibles et en options européennes, Exane Derivatives a construit une franchise reconnue sur les produits structurés.
  • L'asset management : La gestion d'actifs du Groupe Exane est incarnée par ses 2 sociétés de gestion, Exane asset management et Ellipsis AM, spécialisées respectivement sur l'univers des actions et des obligations.

Exposé du 14 septembre 2017 : les cycles longs d’innovation, de dette et de génération

The key is to embrace disruption and change early. Don't react to it decades later. You can't fight innovation.” Ryan Kavanaugh, CEO of Relativity Media

We are in the midst of a huge wave of innovations. Sceptics may bemoan low global productivity growth, the doubtful usefulness of some technological gadgets, or the prospect of a secular stagnation. However, productivity growth is miscalculated, digital technologies are changing the way we produce and spend, and Alvin Hansen – the first to raise the concept of a secular stagnation back in 1938 – has been proved completely wrong.

There is little analysis of disruption at the macroeconomic level. This is despite the numerous macroeconomic upheavals that we have seen in recent years (2008 financial crisis, private debt deleveraging, sovereign defaults, quantitative easing, conflicts in the Middle East, etc.) and their significant impact on global financial markets (change in correlation between bond yields and equity markets, a new world of low commodity prices, the search for yields, the list goes on…).

Our main fundamental fields of research since the outbreak of the financial crisis is (very) long-term debt/innovation cycles. We believe we are entering the fifth long-term cycle since the birth of capitalism that will see both decay and renewal. At the global level, growth is subdued, unemployment is high, the private sector is deleveraging while public debts are surging. But we also see the promise of a wave of innovations, with digital technologies in particular being tapped by many sectors of the economy and improving with time, spawning further innovations. According to our analysis, this (painful) period of macroeconomic adjustment is likely to last until 2022.

From an economic point of view, our analytical framework is close to Kondratiev’s waves or Schumpeter’s creative destruction. Many have tried to look at long-term cycles from different perspectives (economics, wars and generations, among others). But as far as we know, nobody has explained the consistency of innovations, demography, debt, finance and institutions over long-term cycles, nor how they influence one another.

Drawing consequences from long-term cycles is like a journey: you travel back to the past, taking snapshots of what you find most interesting. When you return, you create a photo album to present what you experienced. Of course, tomorrow will be different from yesterday, but travelling through history and building a consistent framework may be the most important step to a better understanding of the economic, political and financial environment that lies ahead.